By Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer
In our first-quarter market outlook, we noted we would be closely monitoring the vaccine rollout, interest rates and federal spending. All three boxes were checked, suggesting that the magnitude of the 2021 recovery was growing even stronger.
Vaccinations are keeping pace1, interest rates have increased significantly2 and we saw high levels of government spending3 throughout the first quarter. This has led consumers to become increasingly confident and markets have responded well to the news.4
As we look ahead to the second quarter, below are three key market drivers we will be keeping close tabs on:
For the most part, circumstances appear to be aligning for a great economy in 2021. The market has anticipated good numbers but investors will want to see this reflected in economic data and earnings.
If you have any questions, please contact your Exencial advisor.
1. NBC News (3/24/21) – 100 days of doses: How the vaccine rollout overcame chaos to be a point of pride
2. CNBC.com (2/17/21) – Interest rates will continue to rise, but don’t blame it all on inflation, economists say
3. CBS News (3/12/21) – Biden signs $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan into law
4. Yahoo! Finance (data as of 4/7/21) – S&P 500
5. CNBC.com (2/12/21) – Cramer’s week ahead: Earnings season has been ‘far better’ than expected
6. MarketWatch (data as of 4/7/21) – U.S. Dollar Index
7. US Inflation Calculator (data as of 4/7/21) – Current US inflation rates: 2000-2021
The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 9.9 trillion indexed or benchmarked to the index, with indexed assets comprising approximately USD 3.4 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.
The US Dollar Index is used to measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six world currencies – Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish Krona. The value of the index is fair indication of the dollar’s value in global markets.
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