As we close out the first half of the year, it is good to reflect on the trends that are evolving and slowly becoming engrained in our society and how they might influence our investment philosophy.
The first half of 2020 was characterized by unprecedented levels of uncertainty and market volatility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This year, we’ve experienced the fastest bull-to-bear market 1 as well as the best 50-day performance on record.2 This has left many investors scratching their heads. Are price moves being influenced by fundamentals, or are there other factors at play?
The U.S. entered a recession in late February, ending the longest economic expansion on record.1 As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will likely be the worst quarterly rating since the Great Depression.2
As unpredictable as this year has been, it’s important to take a moment to celebrate together. We are truly grateful for the continued support of our valued clients and business partners and wish you and your families a fun, relaxing and, above all, safe Independence Day.
At Exencial, we like to take time to celebrate the unique backgrounds, experiences and accomplishments of our team members. For this quarter’s employee spotlight, we are featuring Jason Niebauer, a web developer in our Frisco office.
International markets have continued to lag behind the U.S.1 The last calendar year in which international equities outperformed U.S. equities was 20172 and that happens to be about when the trade disputes – which started in early 2018 – began in earnest.3
Many people have either lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic or are at risk of losing them. Although restrictions put into place to flatten the curve have loosened, the economic impact and uncertainty created by the pandemic is still being felt by Americans across the country.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced plans to keep interest rates near zero through 2021 and possibly 2022.1 At least in the near term, low interest rates are here to stay.
This week, The National Bureau of Economic Research confirmed the U.S. entered a recession in late February as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.1 At the same time, the S&P 500 almost erased all of its 2020 losses and briefly turned positive for the year amid hopes of a swift economic recovery.2
We’re pleased to share that the acquisition of Willingdon Wealth Management (Willingdon) was completed this week, and we wanted to provide more information about our exciting, new partnership.
There were 20.5 million jobs lost in April alone. Our unemployment rate, now at 14.7%, is the highest it has been since World War II.1 The data is likely even worse if you factor in the millions who have dropped out of the workforce entirely as well as those who are underemployed.
Outside of jobless claims, current data on broad economic health has been scant and most companies have stopped providing earnings guidance. That has left economists to make estimates during a period that has no precedent. Over the last several weeks, gross domestic product (GDP) estimates have gradually worsened. Here are a few points we think are important to consider:
This week, we officially entered into bear market territory.1 As the coronavirus continued to spread across the U.S., volatility and uncertainty spread through global markets. Because there are very few comparisons over the last 50 years for what we are now experiencing, the speed at which we reached bear market status was unprecedented. The market has now discounted earnings and valuations of nearly every company regardless of their industry or financial position.
Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, joined Yahoo! Finance’s On the Move show last week to share his market analysis ahead of the December jobs report release. Tim explained why he expects to see a positive start to the new year based on market fundamentals, strengthening consumer confidence and expected earnings growth. However, he also noted that markets should be prepared for a return to normal levels of volatility this year following a relatively quiet 2019. Tune into his segment here.
It has been almost two months since coronavirus fears sent the stock market into bear territory.1 While we are finally beginning to receive tangible evidence regarding the pandemic’s impact on companies’ profitability, there are still many unknown effects we will be learning about in the months ahead.
At Exencial, our main priority is delivering superior advice and execution, which is why we are thrilled to announce the acquisition of Willingdon Wealth Management.
This year’s contagion in financial markets has been the global spread of zero interest rates to the U.S.1 Until recently, the U.S. was one of the last large economies with meaningfully positive interest rates. However, it took us only a few months to move to near zero.
In the first quarter, we transitioned out of a market that was largely quiet with small daily gains to one that is now characterized by volatility and uncertainty.1
In considering investment opportunities, we should not overlook companies that are capitalizing on the rapid advancements being made in artificial intelligence (AI). AI is the process of programming machines to mirror human intelligence, using skills such as learning and problem solving to complete tasks.1
Exencial’s employee spotlight series highlights the unique career paths and achievements of our dedicated team members. This quarter’s spotlight features one of our talented relationship managers, Taylor Gill. We were honored to welcome him back to our team in July 2019 after he interned with us at the beginning of his career.
Earlier this week, Exencial’s investment team held a client webinar to deliver an economic and markets update as uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic persists.
In light of recent market turbulence and volatility, we are going to be hosting a webinar on Wednesday March 25th at 11am CST to deliver an economic update and Q&A session. This will be led by our Chief Investment Officer, Tim Courtney. There will be an invitation to follow.
Obviously, as everyone knows, this has been a very volatile week. I am trying to think of another time where we have seen markets this volatile. The closest one that comes to mind is the fourth quarter of 2008, but even this eclipses it. This is unique in that the market is trying to wrap its arms around an issue that we really have not had to deal with which is, 'exactly how much is this virus going to cost, not only in human lives, but in economic damage?'
When it comes to market declines, one of the foremost jobs of an advisor is to keep a level head in times like this. At Exencial, a chief part of our value proposition is to ensure disciplined execution of a calculated investment strategy in both good and challenging markets. In short, our role is to execute on the things that we and our clients can control.
This week saw several more days of volatile moves up and down, and it looks like stock markets will be ending the week at about the same level at which they began. The markets are continuing to try to determine how much economic damage is being done by COVID-19, and market volatility is likely here to stay until more clarity is evidenced.
The Coronavirus has dominated the market’s attention and indexes appear close to wrapping up their worst week in over a decade. As of the end of Thursday most broad indexes in the US and across the world had fallen about 12% to 15% from recent highs. US indexes are in correction (greater than a 10% decline) for the first time since late 2018.
The preceding decade will go down in history as one of the best 10-year periods for the U.S. stock market. From Jan. 1, 2010 - Dec. 31, 2019, the S&P 500 posted an impressive average annual return of 13.5%.1
We entered 2020 with U.S. stocks trading at healthy valuations. Prices were justified, though not cheap1, so there wasn’t a lot of room for markets to absorb unexpected bad news.
The market has been unusually quiet. In fact, up until Jan. 27, it hadn’t moved 1% or more since mid-October, marking the sixth-longest quiet streak in the last 50 years.1 Since Jan. 27, we have had four more days of greater than + or- 1% moves.
At the end of 2019, a couple of pieces of legislation were signed into law that will potentially affect the taxes of a large number of Americans. The Setting Every Community Up For Retirement Enhancement Act (SECURE Act)1 made major changes to IRAs and 401(k) plans, while the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act2 revived several of the so-called tax extenders that expired in 2018.
Many investors worried 2019 would be the year of the recession. However, it was very much the opposite with the S&P 500 returning 31.3%.1
Kristin Carlton In this piece, we outline five steps you can take now to set yourself up for financial success this year and in the years to come. Check out Kirstin's article here
Exencial's Lead Equity Analyst and Portfolio Manager, David Yepez, is featured in this quarter's employee spotlight. This piece offers insight into how David found his way to Exencial and how he uses his investment expertise to help clients.
2019 was a solid year for the markets, with most primary asset classes generating positive returns. Broad market equities were up between 18 to 36 percent, bonds were up between 4 and 14 percent and real estate was up between 22 and 28 percent as of Dec. 31.1 Even commodities, which have had a rough five years, broadly posted gains of between 7 and 15 percent.1
As 2019 comes to a close, we wanted to take a moment to express our gratitude for your trust in us. It has been a pleasure working with you and your families, and we look forward to continuing our efforts together in 2020 and beyond!
Over the last decade, environmental, social and governance (ESG)1 funds have become increasingly popular as more and more investors look to align their money with their personal values. Investors can now screen and select companies based on multiple factors.
We all know that the end of the year can be very busy, but we also want to make sure that items requiring attention are addressed. Getting last-minute planning matters squared away can help make next year’s tax filing as efficient as possible.
Several large brokerage houses made headlines earlier this fall when they announced zero fees for stock and ETF trading. Firms such as Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and Fidelity were on the list among others.1 However, while trading costs have lessened for ETFs, not much has changed for mutual funds.
As the holidays approach, our team at Exencial Wealth Advisors is reminded of how thankful we are for the continued support of our clients, business partners and friends of the firm. You truly inspire us each and every day. We wish you and your families a wonderful Thanksgiving!
During the last 10 years, international markets have disappointed, producing returns that are not quite half those of U.S. markets. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 is up 10.78 percent while the MSCI EAFE Index is up 4.81 percent. The last decade has seen the largest 10-year outperformance by the U.S. (nearly eight percent annually) since records became available in 1970. As such, there are a couple things we should keep in mind moving forward.
The market hasn’t had to account for increasing political and policy risk for a number of years. In 2012, it was widely expected that former President Barack Obama would win reelection. Markets were familiar with his economic policies and had already factored them into prices.
For much of the last decade, the federal funds rate — the rate at which banks lend to other banks – has hovered near zero. In late 2015, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slowly started to increase the rate until late 2019, at which point it began to reverse course once again. The federal funds rate currently sits in the 1.5 to 1.8 percent range.
Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, joined Yahoo! Finance’s On the Move show this week to discuss his latest market observations. Tim explained why markets may have started to view value stocks as more attractive and identified U.S. consumers as the “primary pillar” holding up economic growth. Lastly, Tim discussed why he expects political risk, which markets have largely downplayed over the last six to seven years, to become a bigger force influencing the markets in years to come. Tune into his segment here.
In the last couple of years, U.S. companies have posted record-setting earnings as a result of corporate tax cuts and economic expansion. The earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 was just over 20 percent in 2018, and estimates project that number to be in the mid-single digits in 2019.
Despite ongoing fears of a looming recession, the U.S. consumer has remained strong and maintained healthy spending habits over the last several years. Since Americans haven’t overspent, they are in a position to use cash toward retail spending, in addition to travel and leisure activities as evidenced by an increase in fully booked commercial flights and cruises. As such, we recently added several consumer-focused companies into our SELECT stock list, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) and Carnival Cruise Line (CCL).
For the first time ever, assets in U.S. index-based equity mutual funds and ETFs have surpassed those in active funds. As of Aug. 31, 2019, passive U.S. stock funds hit $4.27 trillion in assets, eclipsing the $4.25 trillion in their active counterparts.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index 1 declined to 49.1 percent in August, the lowest reading in more than three years. 2
A decade ago, one of the greatest concerns of the energy market was whether producers could extract enough oil out of the ground to meet growing global demand. This led Goldman Sachs analysts to famously predict $200 per barrel oil within five to 10 years.1 Today, however, the greatest challenge energy markets face is gauging how innovation and disruptive technologies will affect demand for oil.
We began this year with the market expecting a recession because of three primary concerns: uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and deteriorating global growth.
In this quarter’s employee spotlight, we’d like to highlight the unique role and background of Lori Stephenson, Relationship Manager at Exencial.
Over the last five years, the U.S. dollar has moved higher as a result of various monetary policies and positive U.S. economic growth. 1 The U.S. Dollar Index has risen 10 percent since the trade war began in January 2018 and about 25 percent since mid-2014. 2
In late July, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points,1 which came as no surprise to most investors as it had been widely forecasted and even encouraged for weeks.
In the face of this instability, it is only natural for investors to want to exit their positions. However, while this strategy is tempting, there is reason to believe it’s better for investors to weather the storm.
David Yepez, Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors, recently joined CNBC's Nightly Business Report to discuss areas of opportunity in the equity market.
Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, joined Yahoo! Finance’s YFi AM program this week to share his outlook on the markets amid escalating trade tensions with China.
Paying taxes on income, dividends and investment gains is likely a sign that assets are being productive and are generating cash flows and appreciation, which is ultimately the goal for investors.
Amid escalating trade wars and a global economic slowdown, respected members of the media asked Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, for his market analysis. Check out a few of Tim’s latest broadcast highlights below for further insight.
At Exencial, our employees are the driving force behind everything we do. Matt Ventura, Managing Director and Senior Wealth Advisor, is the perfect person to spotlight this quarter.
The third quarter of 2019 kicked off on a positive note. On July 1, the S&P 500 surged to new highs and the Dow gained 117.47 points following President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trade agreement at the annual G20 Summit.1
There are many potential benefits of owning real estate investment property. One specific benefit is the ability to defer gains when buying and selling properties.
A considerable amount of questioning, organizing and thinking goes into the process of determining how an individual should invest their savings. The initial purchase and weighting of securities and assets is the culmination of much planning and thought.
The old saying “sell in May and go away1” has managed to endure for many years. It essentially suggests that investors should sell their positions in the stock market from May through October and buy back in for the often more lucrative period between November and April.
Bitcoin remains the most prominent form of cryptocurrency. Many market observers remember its meteoric rise in December 2017, when the value of bitcoin surged to an all-time high of nearly $20,000 just a month after it had been trading at $5,674.
Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, recently joined Yahoo! Finance’s On the Move program to discuss his market outlook ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Join David Yepez, and Tim Courtney, our CIO, as they discuss the current market status, developments within the industrial sector, and future changes within our SELECT Strategy.
We ended 2018 facing three primary risks: trade disagreements, uncertainty related to the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise rates and deteriorating global economic numbers.
A strong business is only as good as its people. At Exencial, we pride ourselves in our talented and committed staff who go above and beyond every day to serve our clients. One particular employee who embodies Exencial’s commitment to excellent client service is Marshall Welke, Director of Operations.
The idea of owning real estate is appealing for many investors. In this piece, we’re particularly referring to the direct ownership of residential real estate, such as single-family homes, condominiums and apartments. These are properties held for rent, so we usually do not include a personal residence in this discussion.
David Yepez, Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors, recently joined CNBC's Nightly Business Report to discuss stocks potentially poised for growth in 2019.
At Exencial, we have long been believers in diversification as a tool for wealth maintenance. Although wealth is often obtained by focused work, such as owning and running a business, becoming an expert in a particular field or just hard work, we like to say that wealth is maintained by diversification.
From the end of 2008 to the conclusion of 2018, the U.S. markets significantly outperformed international developed markets. The S&P 5001 averaged a 13.1 percent return annualized during this period versus 6.8 percent2 for the MSCI EAFE Index3, which represents major international equity markets across developed countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East.
After lasting 35 days,1 the longest government shutdown in U.S. history at least temporarily ended on Jan. 25, 2019.2
Most of what we have heard to this point relating to the new 20 percent Sec 199A QBI deduction1 has centered on taxpayers with operating businesses. However, there is also a QBI deduction available for real estate investment trust (REIT) dividends.
Exencial’s first teleconference of 2019. These webinars are part of our commitment to keeping clients updated on the key market and economic factors driving our investment decisions.
There is no denying the markets have been on a volatile stretch recently. The S&P 500 bottomed out for 2018 with a Christmas Eve close of 2,351, marking over a 20 percent drop from the all-time closing high of 2,930 reached on Sept. 20, 2018.1
The end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 were punctuated by market volatility.1 Over the 77 days between Oct. 9 and Dec. 24, 2018, the S&P 500 experienced a sharp pullback of almost 20 percent.2 Such an extreme decline is relatively rare, as are the volatility numbers from the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) over that time, which were the highest since 2011.
In this article, we’ll identify the three most important economic considerations for markets to keep an eye on entering the New Year.
A primary goal of Exencial’s SELECT equity research is to build a list of companies that are leaders in their respective industries. Our in-depth analysis of factors like revenue growth, profit margins, future prospects and industry influence allows us to identify companies that are driving forces in the market.
There’s no doubt 2018 has been an odd year for the stock market. Fundamentals that typically indicate great market health haven’t led to great performance.
Tim Courtney, CIO of Exencial Wealth Advisors, provides an update on recent market activity
Tim Courtney, CIO of Exencial Wealth Advisors, recently joined CNBC's Nightly Business Report to examine stocks that are less vulnerable during an economic downturn.
With October coming to an end, we thought it would be a good time to address the aptly named “Halloween Indicator.”
Even with the market’s abrupt dip last week, the U.S. has outperformed international markets by about 6 percent per year over the last 10 years, making it look like a much safer and more lucrative bet.
Market participants are often trying to gauge where the economy is in the market cycle. Are we in the growth phase? Nearing the peak? Slowing toward a recession?
Our core philosophy at Exencial Wealth Advisors is “Integrated beats fragmented.” This means we can provide the best advice only when we have fully engaged clients who are willing to freely share information and exchange ideas. This philosophy is at the heart of our E3 process.
When the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA) was passed into law late last year, a notable provision was introduced for small businesses. Certain taxpayers can now potentially receive a significant tax deduction on qualified business income (QBI).
The U.S. economy is witnessing some of its strongest numbers in recent years. If the numbers are so high, why isn’t the market even stronger?
The U.S. economy is booming. Unemployment keeps dropping, earnings continue to rise and consumer confidence is high.
Tim Courtney explained that the majority of U.S. economic indicators remain positive, and identified several stocks investors should consider to take advantage of this market environment.
Investors are wondering if financial contagion will make Turkey the first domino to fall in the long line of world economies, or whether it is an isolated incident.
Tim Courtney, CIO of Exencial Wealth Advisors, joined CNBC's "Power Lunch" last week to address how markets will fare in a rising interest rate environment.
If an investor hears the market is trending up or down, he or she might think that’s reflective of the average company being tracked. In reality, it doesn’t work that way.
Exencial periodically reviews gold and its role within the market. Gold certainly may be a fit in portfolios, but it’s no panacea.
“Past performance is not an indicator of future results.” It’s become a cliché, but there’s a reason for stating it beyond compliance concerns.
Just as you can’t expect to sit on the sidelines and win the race, you can’t simply reduce the risk in your asset portfolio and expect to make generous returns. There is no free lunch to investing.
Investors have enjoyed nearly a decade-long bull market. Tim Courtney, Chief Investment Officer discusses timing of the next recession.
Exencial Wealth Advisors CIO Tim Courtney discusses whether investors should be concerned about the U.S. yield curve.
The jobs reports released in the last couple months shows some astonishing number. See Tim Courtney's comments in this weeks Weekly Commentary
Tim Courtney's comments were included in reporter Michael Foster's recent Kiplinger slideshow regarding long-term funds that can beat the S&P 500
Why should you use a Roth IRA? What is the best way to incorporate this into your portfolio strategy? These questions and more are answered in this piece by Neil Krishnaswamy.
Maximizing returns and controlling risk can be tough to manage, in this piece by Portfolio Managers Rich Erwin & David Yepez they discuss how to limit exposure to uncertainty.
B. Riley FBR managing director Art Hogan, Nuveen chief investment strategist Brian Nick and Exencial Wealth Advisors CIO Tim Courtney discuss the markets, which are paring losses that were triggered by President Trump’s announcement of plans to implement U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Join Tim Courtney, CIO, David Yepez and Rich Erwin in our most recent Outlook video. Tim discusses global market volatility as well as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that may come into play later this year While Rich and David explain new stocks they're introducing to our SELECT portfolio.
Tim Courtney was recently featured in an article on Nerd Wallet by Anna-Louise Jackson about the recent market volatility.
Bear or Bull? Tim Courtney discusses the current market and what we should expect throughout 2018 with regard to volatility.
Derek Northup covers a couple of items that you should be paying attention to ahead of next years tax season.