4-16-21 Morning Jog | Exencial Wealth Advisors | By Alex Klingelhoeffer
Hi folks, Alex Klingelhoeffer here with Exencial Wealth Advisors it is 7:08 here in the middle part of the country on Friday, happy Friday to you. April 16th, 2021. Here is your morning jog around the economic headlines of the World.
U.S. and President Biden yesterday approved sanctions on Russia for malign actions resulting from the election in 2020. Primarily the most important one of those is now U.S. banks cannot buy Russian ruble denominated debt in the primary market they have nothing to say about the secondary market right when banks buy debt, they can do it two ways. One originally from the country that sells it. Two, they can buy it from someone else that buys it from the country when it issues debt.
Given the fact that this only affects that primary market not the secondary market it really does not take away from the liquidity that Russia can access on the worldwide network of banks. Because the U.S. bank wants Russian by Russian debt they can just buy it from someone else.
It does have a small impact on the primary dealings. Not a huge effect on the total addressable market for that country’s debt. Would be interesting to see if this escalates a little bit right of course a little safer rattling from Biden. It is proven to be aggressive on foreign policy but hey it is really this sanction not a huge deal for Russia given they can just sell that somebody else who sells it on.
A lot of vaccine doses are going unused in certain states right. Nearly 30 percent in some states here along the
southern portion of the country. Here is a map from Bloomberg that I want to show you here and if you look at it sort of in that Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee region right, SEC country, I am a sec grad. We just have doses piling up now those are more rural states it is harder to get large amounts of vaccine to the population because driving distances and so on and so forth. But vaccine appointments really are not being used.
Perhaps we will see a shift in the policy to get vaccines to states that are using their vaccines to get the entire country’s population vaccinated. Be interesting to see if that trend continues and if policy changes to get vaccine to where folks are using it regardless of whether it is needed.
India, they are going to need some additional vaccines themselves we talked about their cases are skyrocketing. They are running out of raw materials; they are sort of flat lining in the number of vaccinations they can make. Remember last month they put some curbs on their exports to vaccinations to keep more of it home to vaccinate more of their population.
Particularly in Mumbai which is being hit incredibly hard. If India closes that is going to have dramatic effects on the world economy, dramatic effects on raw materials.
Especially oil which is now above $67 today. On additional demand hopes in the U.S. we had a great employment number yesterday. China had a GDP number that was right in line with analyst expectations. Up 18% year-over-year. That has got some base effects into it but still a very strong number and their oil consumption is really continuing to be very strong.
Supplies are drawing down; I saw a study the other day oil is growing at about 4 million barrels a day worldwide on the inventory level so that certainly a strong demand. OPEC is going to meet in a couple of weeks to talk about increasing output again. Of course, they are going to increase output in May but let us see if in their late April meeting they decide, June, July; we are going to pump even more.
Last one before we get you off to a weekend. Dogecoin is up 300% on the week. Here is an interesting fact if that were to happen for another five or six trading days based upon yesterday’s trading price, it would be the most valuable asset on earth. Dogecoin would be in terms of market cap. Dogecoin, not Bitcoin, not stocks, Dogecoin. And as the headline says it is stoking fears of a cryptocurrency bubble because it was only up 150 percent that would be just fine.
If you want some additional information throughout the day, feel free to follow me on twitter it’s @OKCCFACFP until then hope you have a great weekend, I’m out.
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