Thank you to everyone who joined us for Exencial’s quarterly market outlook. This quarter’s discussion focused on how investors are navigating a mix of steady growth, policy shifts, and concentrated market themes. Senior Portfolio Managers Jeff Hibbeler and Pete Trontis shared their perspectives on market conditions and the firm’s positioning heading into year-end.
Jeff noted that markets remain stable despite a recent uptick in volatility. Economic data continues to show strength, though sentiment has weakened as uncertainty around inflation and the Fed’s next moves lingers. Within fixed income, we will continue to emphasize quality and flexibility, using Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and intermediate maturities to help portfolios adjust as rate expectations change.
Pete then turned to equities, where optimism around artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled gains but also raised concerns about sustainability. He cautioned that much of the current AI spending appears self-reinforcing, resembling past speculative periods. While our firm has benefited from having some exposure in this area, we continue to have an underweight here as valuations have stretched.
The conversation also touched on gold and alternative assets. Pete explained that gold’s rally has been driven largely by central bank demand rather than interest rate trends. The team also discussed cryptocurrencies, noting that while digital assets continue to attract attention, their lack of consistent pricing and reliable valuation makes them a challenging fit for most long-term investment strategies at this stage.
To close, Pete highlighted international positions which overall have done well YTD and outperformed US positions so far. Overall, we recommend remaining balanced and disciplined and tilt towards assets that are reasonably priced.
To watch the full webinar recording, click here.
If you have any questions about market conditions or your investment strategy, please contact your Exencial advisor.
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Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are US Treasury bonds indexed to inflation to protect investors from decline in the purchasing power of their money. The principal value of TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation.
